US economy worse recovery system

The crisis of Credit visualized

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Even in bad times, good ideas get funding

I was cleaning my bookmarks and came across this article posted on February 9th 2001. 8 years ago!! What can I say? It's so actual it is frightening. You can change few dates, add couple of words such as Web 2.0 and social networking, mention FaceBook and TechCrunch and you have a very good post for today.
Bottom line it gives me hope this whole recession can be behind us soon. People have short memory. We forget!
Please take 5 minutes and read text below.

A year ago, big-time venture capitalists were such revered individuals that you expected some enterprising entrepreneur would put their faces and track records on trading cards. People like Ann Winblad of Hummer Winblad Venture Partners and John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers were on their way to achieving rock star status.

Then the technology bust of 2000 occurred and suddenly the watchwords became not "hot IPO" but "irrational exuberance." The VCs were suddenly not so VIP.

Yet at a recent Wharton conference entitled "Private Equity in the New Millennium," venture capitalists generally agreed that while things got a bit wild in the last year or two, the present and future can still be profitable. "Yes, times are different than they were three years ago, but they are also different than they were three months and even three days ago," said Jesse Reyes, managing director of Venture Economics, who reports on private equity performance in his company's Benchmark Reports. "The brand-new technology is not going to go away. Things will go in cycles."

Reyes said that he compares current conditions to those in the middle 1980s. In the early 1980s, a big wave of tech companies went public--Microsoft, Apple Computer, Compaq Computer, Lotus--with great fanfare and great gains.

"Then four or five years later, there was a giant hole," he said. "There were single-digit returns instead of the double-digits promised to investors in many companies, and the well of venture capital dried up considerably."

Reyes' statistics show that while the emphasis in the press seems to be on the slowdown in initial public offerings, of more significance is the fact that the median company received $27 million in venture capital in the fourth quarter of 2000; in the first quarter of 2001, it is getting only $15 million to $20 million.

Getting real
"The days of $25 million first-round funding are indeed gone," said Dan Roach, managing director of Garage.com, the Silicon Valley-based venture firm. "But the opportunities are still there. Good ideas continue to be funded and valuations will just be more realistic."

The theme of "We're still here for good ideas" was repeated over and over by the venture capitalists at the conference. "It certainly was an interesting time two years ago, quite heady," said Steve DesJardin, a partner in Encore Venture Partners. "But often good ideas came around, and there weren't enough good people to run them. Now we think it's a time of great opportunity if, and only if, you have a long-term, at least three-to-seven-year time line...You should be a builder, not a trader. Traders have cloaked themselves as VCs. But true VCs look to build companies. As a good VC, you are as much a part of the companies as the entrepreneurs."

Safeguard Scientifics, a publicly traded technology incubator and fund investor, has lost about 90 percent of its market value in recent months. But Garrett Melby, Safeguard's vice president of e-services, said the company was doing business much the same as it has in other business cycles. "We have prospered when the markets were favorable and built companies when they were not," said Melby. "While the opportunities for entrepreneurs and careers in venture capital are obviously not as strong as in the last two or three years, tech investing is still a great place to be.

"There may be fewer opportunities, but they will be attractive ones," he added. "The rates of return may not be as rapid, but the ideas that are being funded now have better long-term business plans, so in the long run, that is what will work."

Carter Sednaoui, CFO of Accel Partners, said his firm has of late avoided health care ventures, but, ironically, its health-care portfolio has contributed more than $26 million to Accel's bottom line, more than its tech portfolio. The company's success comes because "we are development drillers, not wildcatters," said Sednaoui. "It's been one hell of a party the last five years, but essentially, we haven't done anything different from the previous 15; it's just that everyone was more successful. Venture capital is an interesting business, but what the recent times prove is that you should not be attracted merely by the financial gratifications, but by the idea of building companies."

Robert Walsh, a general partner at Summit Partners, a late-stage growth investment firm, suggested that valuations across all industries won't be rising rapidly for a while and thus anyone thinking about becoming a venture capitalist had better be creative and do his or her research. "Everyone now has to think about being on the leading edge in ideas. IT (information technology) services, for instance, was big for us in 1997 through 1999, but not now. You have to be looking for the next thing, or someone will beat you to it...On the other hand, there is no short-term path, though it seemed that way to those who jumped in during the last couple of years. Your job is to help entrepreneurs build their dreams and so to build yours."

Some venture capitalists contend that now is actually a better time for the venture capitalist industry than two years ago. "The risk is out," said Fred Wilson, managing partner at Flatiron Partners, a New York venture firm. "Too many companies were being formed in one industry or another and values were too high. Now more bad companies, or at least bad valuations, are unlikely to occur. There may be fewer deals, but more will be good ones."

Intensive care
Venture capitalists should not be afraid to sunset companies that aren't going to make it in the long run, added Accel Partners' Sednaoui. "We actually have an intensive care unit at Accel. On Mondays, we discuss those companies in the ICU and see whether we can help them succeed...The point is to make money. Sometimes that means getting out."

But the real question is when to get in. And the venture capitalists at the conference agreed that there is no magic formula for that.

"How do you value a company? To tell you the truth, I have no idea," said Jason Sanders, general partner at Crosslink Capital. "I don't mean that to sound stupid. But it is more an art than a science. The problem is that if you are wrong, your investment can go down to zero, and if you are right, you can make a lot of money. It is an art not everyone can do."

Sam Baker, managing director of the private equity group at Pilgrim Baxter & Associates, agreed with the art versus science notion.

Pricing a venture deal is an art because "you are forecasting cash flow way out," he said. "You can jerk yourself around with an Excel spreadsheet, but (it's important) to keep in mind that you want to invest in companies and managements that will grow over time. This is not just about the next quarter."

Roach attributed much of his company's success to Garage.com's dynamic founder, Guy Kawasaki. "Guy is a shameless promoter of our portfolio companies," said Roach. "It's a California thing. You have to do that to make your money the best and the smartest. To be a successful venture capitalist, you have to be proactive. You hear the word 'network' a lot, but that is what it is all about.

"You have to build it into your psyche that you are always looking," Roach added. "The people who are most successful are extremely networked. They meet people at conferences, they send Christmas cards, they make notes. When it comes time to make that important phone call, that other person will say, 'Yes, I had lunch with that guy in June,' and that may seal the deal."

Most importantly, the venture capitalists told the audience, it is vital to know that you are doing business and not being sentimental. "You can be friendly and nice, but you want most to be commercially successful," said Mitchell J. Blutt, executive partner at J.P. Morgan Partners. "If you are commercially focused, the company you are funding will appreciate you because you have made your objectives clear. Then your friendliness isn't a mask."

And lifting that mask can be very important when you have something negative to say. "It's great to have everyone in the room feel good (about a deal)," said Baker, of Pilgrim Baxter." But the important thing is to have everything go right. Every good firm needs a bastard who sees through this feel-good thing and says, 'Wait a minute. We have only $5 million left, and there are some things we have to do'. That is the difference between a feel-good bad deal and one that works."

Actual link: http://tinyurl.com/anz7ms

the T-Mobile Dance

I like this ad for Tmobile. Major change from 3 bars, network, 3g, BB BS ads.

Twitter - wanna a few bucks

THIS ARTICLE WAS POSTED ORIGINALLY ON PAT PHELAN'S BLOG AS A GUEST POST.

The web is full of articles based on how Twitter can make some monies.
Of course I don’t intent to give Twitter managers a lesson. They proved
it all already. Success is no luck.

Kevin Thau – Twitter new biz dev guy must be brainstorming day and night looking on how to generate revenue for our favorite social media network.

My analysis is mostly based on observation. Don’t blame me if some of
the figures are distorted. If you have them please come forward and
I’ll rectify.

They are about 100 Twitter clients, 200 Twitter services and certainly
a thousand of 3rd party apps or web apps posting to Twitter.

I cannot imagine one is launching a Twitter service for philanthropic
inspiration only. It’s all about the money. Money around a community of
users – or potentiality of revenues to be generated around this
community.

Twitter founders and managers must be frustrated to see everyone else
around raising money based on sending feeds or posts to their social
media network.

Who provides the vital information? Twitter!!

Latest example of TweetDeck raising half a million dollar delivering messages to a FREE online service left me to think.

How Twitter can monetize their business and still maintain a free service for end-user?

Ok – I admit I have been a bit busy this week so it took me a few minutes to figure it out…but here are my thoughts.

Twitter is a carrier i.e. identical to any broadcast media. We were all
thinking broadcast media = TV…here is the mistake. I’m thinking
Broadcast media as THE network. Twitter IS the network. TVs are the
clients - each one around a different service.

If you look at it this way you suppress direct revenue from advertising
- which is certainly not very sexy today -AND you may charge for
SERVICE per usage. Like a hosting company – basically Twitter hosts our
Tweets and make them available to Clients.

So now imagine a business model based on:

- Bandwidth aka Twitter API Usage 80req/hour or 100req/hour or 200req/hour

- Number or Tweets posted

Twitter should SELL API usage to all of those who want to access their
network. This is THE immediate revenue-generating model. Price should
be based on consumption, queries, awareness, and even revenue sharing
in some cases.

Give each APP the full XMPP feed from Twitter, everyone now has the exact same access.

Twitterrific is selling its application on Apple Store, generating revenue based on usage of a free API. It doesn’t sound right.

First this is taking traffic away from Twitter mobile web app [meaning no possible revenue from advertising if ever]

2nd it requires more constraint on API and therefore induce a cost for Twitter.

In this case Twitter would be much more a service provider with revenue generated by thousand of companies.

Leave others monetize their value added service. If one thinks
Twitterrific, Twhirl or TweetDeck bring a different user experience it
might justify the cost. Even help those application developers to sell
their apps.

Of course it will certainly lower number of Twitter apps available. But
we know some are ridiculously useless or repetitive and will not
survive. In any case API could remain FREE for usage <50req/hr.

There is one downside in all that – which I believe could become a great benefit…

What if the community of developers around Twitter decides to give up on Twitter?

Well I still think Twitter is strong thanks to its 2.7 million users
and NOTHING else. People will use more services directly offered by
Twitter: Web, mobile portal and text message…and maybe even their own
Twitter desktop application if they really wanted to!!

So here it is. It certainly needs to be tuned and brainstormed but general idea is set above.

@Twitter @EV What do you think? Deal or no deal?

Latest List of BlackBerry OS

Here is the latest list of BlackBerry OS available. Those links were found on the web. Let me know if links are down.



8900 [Javelin]
4.6.1.114
https://www.blackberry.com/Downloads/entry.do?code=D010396CA8ABF6EAD8CACC2C2F2F26C7

9000 [Bold]
4.6.0.219
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=K2ZNPN3B

9500 [Storm GSM]
4.7.0.85
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=86NRVBFR

9530 [Storm CDMA]
4.7.0.86
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=NWZMIP5Q

And for 8100, 8110, 8120, 8300, 8310, 8320, 8700, 8800 and 8820
4.5.0.124

8100 | 8110 | 8120

8300 | 8310 | 8320

8700 | 8800 | 8820

8330

If you do not know what to do with this - best is not to try anything stupid. You are on your own here. YOU CAN BRICK YOUR BB - BE CAREFUL.

Edit 01/13/09: 8330 added.

Palm Pre - One I'll be waiting for

I think this video gives a nice overview of what Palm Pre will offer soon. I really feel this device has all it takes to become a major hit.
Palm is the inventor of electronic agendas. They failed to move from handled devices to smartphones mostly due to a lack of vision. But they have the capacity to counter strike.
Apple iPhone has definitely brought new targets in term of customer satisfaction and slowly competition is catching up.
It will take few months before we can see Pre on shelves. Sprint might be a big winner and I'm sure they gave a fat check to Palm for this product exclusivity.

Things I like about the Pre:

Fast processor
Real Keyboard
Wireless wall charger [excellent news for the industry]
Palm compatible 3rd party software
Flash [incredible when we know how Apple failed to include it on iPhone]

And I also like the fact Bono [U2] is a major investor in Palm. Makes the Pre looks more human - less techy :)

2008 - what will remain?

This post is mostly for my kids, grand kids and generation of Seroussi's to come. No one will ever forget 2008. Like I studied about 1776, 1929, 1939, 1945, 1974, 1979 and 2001, 2008 will be one of those dates. A year where world has changed.

CHANGE because an African American was elected President of the United States of America, CHANGE because 'money' has switched hands, CHANGE because crude oil price is not ruling our world anymore, CHANGE because Europe is finally born, CHANGE because China and India have awaken, CHANGE because Madoff created a Big Bang in the world of finance, CHANGE because we will never think the same anymore.



I know this year was rough for everyone but I personally feel very lucky to be part of this historical moment. Looking at the big picture, my friends, will help us get through those times.
The important moment of your life is NOW - reconstruction. How changes are going to affect our everyday life? How we will behave in future and how we will 'run' our world.

I'm hopeful new values are arising. Respect and work will take over arrogance and ignorance.
There is no second chance in a global world where butterfly effect is part of our life!
CHANGE is not a concept unless you want it.

We need to rebuild for generations to come a safer and better world. My most sincere wish for 2009 is for everyone to CHANGE. Think different - think POSITIVE.

My favorite song

Jason Mraz - I'm Yours -

The One

I wonder how stupid McCain advisers feel when they look again at this vicious ad!!
Either you like or don't like Obama you shouldn't compare him to Moses and add this statement : 'Is he ready to lead??'.
Wrong message all the way...

Georges Bush ducks to avoid flying shoe

Amazing reflex from Bush on this one. He is very calm and even stops a security agent running toward him.

I think secret service agents will need to be much faster to protect Obama.

Android on HTC Touch

If you happen to have an old Windows Mobile HTC you can install Android on it. It works like a charm as you can see on this video.
This install is a dual-boot WM and Android made possible by XDA-Developers.
I was very active on XDA forums 5 years ago but I lost interest in Windows Mobile machines after my first BlackBerry. But if we can have Android on those devices...I might give it a try.

Test of Insignia HD camcorder.

This test is not really accurate for the following reasons:

- Original was an Avi converted in Mov via Quicktime
- HD was lost in the conversion.
- It was edited on iMovie and re-exported in mp4
- All shots in this video were taken on bright daylight behind a tinted windshield.
- Camera was not steady as I was holding it.
- Road was bumpy at some point which caused some distortions.

But overall it gives a good view of this tiny camcorder sold for $99 at Best Buy. It has a lot of potential and I will try to improve shooting and editing in next posts.

2008 My Social Media Year in image

This year was a tough year for everyone and the only person who knew something was happening was Jeff Pulver. Back on December 27th last year, Jeff hosted a SoFla [South Florida] social media breakfast and his prediction for 2008 happened to be very accurate. Watch and see for yourself.

I was on the road most of the year traveling to France, Spain, Switzerland, London, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Monaco, Nice, Tel-Aviv, New York, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Ottawa, Montreal, Bahamas, Arkansas, Boston, Houston, Seattle, Vancouver, and lots of other places I cannot name for confidentiality reasons.
Here is a mock-up of 2008 in videos and pictures:

Seattle in January

Later in January we had an important meeting in Mountain View:

One of best moment of 2008 was Barcelona GSM World Congress in February. I really had a great time with Jenny our COO, Bhaskar Roy co-founder of Qik, Paul Walsh from Segala, Loren Feldman video blogger 1938 Media, Jeremie Berrebi CEO Zlio, David Marcus CEO Zong, and Pat Phelan friend and business partner.

Pat Phelan and Bhaskar Roy

Vonx San Jose March 2008

St Patrick MaxRoam party



Circle Qik

April in Vegas:

You can admire Bellagio water show from one of their most prestigious suite

Cork, Ireland in April:





Tel Aviv in May where I received a nice gift from our partner:




And Monaco where Vodafone invited me to Formula1 GrandPrix :



And VIP access to Cannes Festival

Paris few weeks later in June with buddy Pat Phelan:

One of my favorite pictures in July. Our customer service team has a new silent tagline:



So I had to pray to make sure everything would work:


Jerusalem July 2008

Back to the Valley in August for a diner at Village Pub:


Jackie Danicki, Pat Phelan, Bhaskar Roy, Florian Seroussi

Highlight of 2008 was TechCrunch 50 in San Francisco:


Jeff Nolan, Pat Phelan, Florian Seroussi, Jackie Danicki

I must admit this was fun. Pat Phelan had the bright idea to offer free iPhone unlocking and he ended up by bricking Mike Arrington - CEO TechCrunch - iPhone. Funny part is that I was holding the iPhone when Mike walks back. Pat's face that day was just incredible. Watch this video:

Less funny - I had to go to New York and it happened to be the day all markets crashed.



Fall in Paris in October:



I'm just back from a short trip in the Valley:



For most of my readers it sounds like a dream - it's not. Jet lags, long flights, security hassle, packing unpacking, huge temperature difference, short nights, getting into a 4 hour meeting after an overseas flight, kids too far away....all those things are not on those pictures...but they exist.

It's my choice. I don't complain. Let's see how 2009 will be...

3 must have add-on for your Mac

Like many others I moved to Mac about a year ago after 25 years of Windows era. It was not easy and I think Apple could convert more users with some minor changes. First obvious change is the mouse. Windows users like right/left clicks. But Apple has decided NOT to change their strategy. On the contrary they went to 0 click on their new Mac...Good for some Mac junkies but very bad if you need to convince more Windows users.
On a software level here are 3 plug-ins Apple should bundle in OS X. A must have for ex-Windows_ers.

1. Email notification. Native mail app on OSX does not give you any notification of new incoming emails. Unless you check you masked dock every 10 minutes or so - you might not see an important email coming in. I use Mail Appetizer. It's free and does the job amazingly well.
2. Quicksilver lets you start applications (and do just about everything) with a few quick taps of your fingers. I really wonder why a company full of cash like Apple would not take their checkbook out and buy this first-class must-have add-on!!
3. Wireless panel on OS X is very basic. Too simple for most Windows users. We like to tweak and here we basically have 2 choices. Turn Radio on or off. Well try Air Radar. It has it all. Perfect to find a good hotspot while on the move.

By the way. Those 3 plug-in are 100% FREE and only ask for voluntary donations. We need to support them. Even $1 can help.
I could have listed many other apps/addons but those are so basic for me I wanted to keep the list short and relevant.
If you have some good tips about things I missed - please feel free to educate me :) I'm a new Mac user.

MoMa style

Babies at pool

Babies at pool
Originally uploaded by Florian SEROUSSI.

Sent via BlackBerry Bold from www.CelTrek.com

Positive beautiful commercial

So refreshing. Watch it twice to enjoy fully!

3 Free must have apps for BlackBerry

There are 3 applications you must have on your BlackBerry. And best there are FREE.

BerrySpeedy: BerrySpeedy is a free app that acts as a speed test for your BlackBerrys internet connection.


OTA Download: http://ota.deltatech.com.mx/

CaptureIt: It is a simple screen capture utility for Blackberry devices with 4.3 or higher. You simple assign the the application to a Blackberry connivence key, and press the key on the screen of your choice. this is very useful for tutorials, or just to capture you call log.


OTA Download: http://www.thetechmogul.com/CaptureIt/CaptureIt.jad

TinyLock: TinyLock is a small utility for BlackBerry, lock the BlackBerry keyboard when the backlight turns off. You can customize it as you wish. Saves your battery and accidental calls.


OTA Download: http://www.handrapid.com/download/tinylock.jad

I love this Motrin ad

I know a lot of moms didn't like the idea of this commercial but I really don't see anything wrong with the ad.
In my opinion we only hear moms that didn't like it - so I assume all the other ones were not opposed to it. That makes a lot of moms and Motrin should not have pulled it off.
What about dads and back pain?? Motrin you should make the same commercial with dads instead of moms. Men are usually more open moms than most moms :)
As often Loren Feldman made some good points in this videocast. Not exactly vocabulary I'd be using on my blog but his analysis is valid!
I hope this will not stop Motrin from trying to be innovative in their ads.