Sunday, January 14, 2007

iPhone ou pas iPhone?

Ce n'est pas dans mes habitudes de passer au travers d'un sujet 'spécial geekerie' mais là la supercherie est trop grosse.
Ca fait 3 ans qu'Apple annonce se lancer dans la fabrication d'un mobile. Chaque année Steve Jobs - que j'admire - parle de convergence multimédia mobile et puis on attend le killer phone.
Finalement cette année au C.E.S. Apple nous présente son iPhone. OS propriétaire, internet, musique, vidéos et téléphone.
Aucune information technique, pas de prototype qui circulent, pas d’autonomie affichée et surtout aucune date précise de lancement. Tout ce qu’on sait c’est que Cingular a signé un contrat d’exclusivité avec Apple.

Bref que du vent comme l’écrit très bien Oliver de Mobile Crunch. Il note les points forts et faibles de l’iPhone :

1) Market share: 1% global market share or 8 million phones in 2008 is NOT feasible. Even with subsidies, this product cannot compete in a year’s time in EMEA and Asia. Those markets are crucial to making the numbers, not to mention the fact that the Cingular deal will delay the CDMA launch to cover all US carriers and compete with the big manufacturers. Faible

2) Profitability: This is all about reaching economy of scale which will not happen until 10% of the global market is captured, please note that the PC market is different as it is more a software than a hardware play. Faible

3) Brand: Apple has great brand preference with enormous growth potential outside the current brand territory like PC’s and iPod’s. Fort

4) Design: Marvelous design! Looking at the N800, Apple has not reinvented the phone, nevertheless certainly made the design leap ahead of the competition. Fort

5) Thin: Great size, however the 3G engine will need more space which will make the product fatter and please make sure you’re close to a charger. Fort

6) Radio technology: Apple does not have the radio technology necessary to compete in the premium smart-phone segment, note the lack of 3G. Most companies which lacked radio technology have failed over the years like the Japanese manufacturers in GSM in the late nineties. Faible

7) R&D: Giants like Nokia and Motorola spend close to $10 billion annually on R&D which makes it hard for Apple to compete in this new field with a lot of technologies crossing the chasm every day. Faible

8) Price: In a certain price category, a product needs to compete on both the premium brand, design as well as the features. Apple’s feature list sounds impressive compared to the other phones on the market in the US, however, would compare to second or third tier manufacturers in Europe and Asia. Before moving down in price and start roaming the mass-market, Apple needs to win the high-end and become profitable. Faible

9) Battery life: Knowing the battery life of the ultra-thin smart-phones like the Black Jack which is shipped with two batteries in-box, with Wifi, Apple would need to ship with 3 batteries in-box or wait for the fuel-cell breakthrough. Faible

10) OS: OSX is not developed from the ground up for smartphones like Psion/Symbian was. This means that Jobs “killer app is making calls” is probably not as well integrated with the iPod and the PIM functionality as it should have been the case, Wifi and BT will drain the battery and only a very fast and expensive processor might be able to cater for a fast-working UI. Très faible

D’ailleurs comme je l’avais déjà évoqué, l’iPhone d’Apple ne s’appellera pas iPhone !!
Donc personnellement je reste sur ma faim et mon BlackBerry Pearl n’a pas trop de soucis à se faire pour l’instant.

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